In this paper we study recent lapse experience in key European Union markets for insurance products with profit participation. We describe to what extent the rise in interest rates in 2022 and 2023 has driven policyholder behaviour in Germany, France and Italy. Those years were the first time in recent memory in which interest rates significantly increased as a result of inflationary pressure. The impact has not been the same in these markets, with Italy having the highest lapse rates. For each country, we cover the following:
- Market experience
- Modelling dynamic lapses
- Related risk management issues
- Lapse solvency capital requirement